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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp338 Product Turnover and the Cost of Living Index: Quality vs.
Fashion Effects Appendix Kozo Ueda, Kota Watanabe and Tsutomu Watanabe Abstract: This paper evaluates the effects of product turnover on a welfare-based cost-of-living index.
These include conventional models based on domestic factors, existing open-economy Phillips curve-based specifications, factor-augmented models, and time-varying parameter models.
Often, the RMSPE and directional accuracy gains of the RW-AO model are shown to be statistically significant.
Our results are robust to forecast combinations, intercept corrections, alternative transformations of the target variable, different lag structures, and additional tests of (conditional) predictability.
We argue that the RW-AO model is successful among EMEs because it is a straightforward method to downweight later data, which is a useful strategy when there are unknown structural breaks and model misspecification.
Flexible price level targeting dominates under discretion; flexible inflation targeting dominates under commitment; and strict price level targeting dominates when using optimal simple rules.
This paper replaces RE in the intertemporal current account model with sticky information (SI) in which consumers are inattentive to shocks to their income and infrequently adjust their consumption.
However, there are macro-finance variables that exhibited a strong association with the HMV following the GFC.
For the medium-term business cycle frequency (Comin and Gertler, 2006), we find that while some correlations exhibit the same change as the business cycle counterparts, others do not.
Our study finds that more generous restructuring conditions involving nominal relief are associated with an acceleration of per capita GDP growth, a reduction of poverty and inequality, and an increase in public health budgets.
We also find that countries receiving nominal relief tend to receive lower aid flows subsequently, the opposite being the case for countries receiving high reductions in the net present value of their obligations, but no nominal haircuts.